Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA, Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for California hydrology and water resources, The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning, Flow regime, temperature and biotic interactions determine winners and losers among trout species under climate change, Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics, Projected changes in climate, snowpack, evapotranspiration and streamflow in the Canadian portion of the Columbia River basin, The distributed hydrology soil vegetation model, A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain, Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs, Long range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern U.S, Multi-objective global optimization for hydrological models. Because both these effects increase flood risk in the simulations, the effects are unusually large in these basins (Fig. (2005). For each streamflow location (and its associated contributing basin area), a set of identical products is available on the study web site (CIG, Citation2013b). Snover, A. K., Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S.-Y., Mantua, N. J., Salath, E. P. Jr, Steed, R., & Tohver, I. Did you know that with a free Taylor & Francis Online account you can gain access to the following benefits? 1555. Although a number of pilot climate change studies have been carried out in the CRB in collaboration with various water management agencies in the past (e.g., NWPCC, Citation2005), the RMJOC study was something of a landmark in that it was the first time that the BPA, USBR, and USACE used climate change information in coordinated interagency planning exercises in the CRB. Report of A.G. Crook Company to Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR. As an integrated priority, the Trust has integrated climate resilience into its strategic priorities by supporting: wildfire risk reduction and job creation through the Columbia Basin Wildfire Resiliency Initiative energy retrofits, repairs and alternative energy generation at community-purpose buildings through the Non-profit Sustainability - Building Support Grants Figure 8 shows hydrographs from selected basins with different hydrologic classifications (snowmelt-dominant, mixed-rain-and-snow, and rain-dominant) in the United States and Canada. The HD method was also selected as the basis for the main summary products derived for each river location (see description below), primarily because it was capable of providing good performance over the complete range of products produced by the CBCCSP (Hamlet et al., 2010a). (2000). Schnorbus, M. A., Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., & Berland, A. J. These parameters were chosen because they strongly affect the timing and volume of runoff production in the model simulations and are, in general, not available from observed data. During initial model development steps, Elsner et al. Mostly cloudy, with a high . The choice of the A1B scenario, however, was informed by the authors viewpoint that this scenario is an instructive and plausible scenario reflecting relatively little GHG mitigation until mid-century (similar to A2 until about 2050), followed by more effective GHG mitigation efforts in the second half of the twenty-first century as impacts intensify. It was also well understood by practitioners at CIG that aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem researchers, managers, and stakeholders needed a similar, but more comprehensive, data resource to support long-term planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies at the landscape scale. 6 Example of a summary plot for extreme high flows (Q20, Q50, Q100, left panels) and extreme low flows (7Q10, right panels) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon for two emissions scenarios (A1B, B1) and three future time periods (2020s, 2040s, 2080s). We use cookies to improve your website experience. hL4+ze The CBCCSP was founded on the basis of regional partnerships to support a shared need for climate change scenarios and directly encompassed the transboundary nature of the CRB's management framework by including both US and Canadian interests in an integrated and comprehensive data resource. In addition to the time series gridded data, the long-term monthly mean data for each hydrologic variable, for each scenario, is provided in GridASCII format, compatible with ArcGIS. Site specific data [Data]. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. Right panel: Historical estimates of summer AET (upper right) compared with percentage changes for the same CD scenarios. The MRB encompasses 24 terrestrial ecosystems, providing habitat for 100 species of mammals, reptiles, and amphibians Its floodplain supports 40% of the waterfowl and wading birds in North America, and the MRB's . The site at Corra Linn Dam on the Kootenay River is representative of changing hydrographs in many locations in the northern tip of the CRB in British Columbia. Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page . (, Washington State Department of Community Trade and Economic Development, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, A Monte Carlo hydropower and water resources simulation model developed by the NWPCC, Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling method, HYDropower SIMulation, a hydropower and water resources simulation model used by the BPA in the CRB, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. How do I view content? The SRES A1B and B1 GHG emissions scenarios (Nakienovi et al. Thus, by selecting 10 GCM scenarios with good historical performance that also spanned the range of impacts, we effectively reduced the computational and storage requirements of the CBCCSP by approximately a factor of two. The magnitude of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10 are expected to shift markedly in some basins in response to cool season warming, increasing cool season precipitation, and warmer, drier summers. One of the major climate change impacts already being seen in the Columbia Basin has been the decreases in winter snowpack, the increase in winter precipitation events, and the resulting shifts in flow regime in the Columbia River and its tributaries. For the future scenarios, the range of the projections (pink shading) is plotted. These annual peak daily flows are then ranked and assigned a quantile value using an unbiased quantile estimator based on the method of Cunane (Stedinger, Vogel, & Foufoula-Georgiou, Citation1993). The approach used a refined version of the methods established by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation2005), which created a hybrid historical meteorological dataset based on three primary data resources: a) monthly HCN data in the United States and the similar AHCCD datasets in Canada, b) daily data from the cooperative station network in the United States (co-op stations) and similar data from Environment Canada, and c) a monthly climatology (19712000) for precipitation and daily minimum and maximum temperatures at 30 arc-second resolution produced using the PRISM (Daly, Gibson, Taylor, Johnson, & Pasteris, Citation2002; Daly, Neilson, & Phillips, Citation1994; DiLuzio, Johnson, Daly, Eischeid, & Arnold, Citation2008). Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). This is likely because soil moisture is higher in summer west of the Cascade Range and evapotranspiration is mostly energy limited, whereas east of the mountains the late summer soil moisture is already very low in the current climate and increasing evapotranspiration does not result in much additional soil moisture stress. 0 8). Weather for Monday, Feb. 27. Weather for Monday, Feb. 27 | Columbia Basin Herald Colombia - Climate | Britannica The largest increases in flooding are in mixed-rain-and-snow basins whose mid-winter temperatures are presently within a few degrees of freezing. unpublished manuscript). 8). The MOCOM-UA tool uses an objective function (defined by the user) and a shuffle complex evolution procedure to optimize model calibration parameters to create a set of Pareto (equally) optimal calibration parameters. 12 Changes in monthly mean total column soil moisture (OctoberSeptember) for three representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (centre), and Yakima River at Parker (right). columbia basin climate columbia basin climate - iccleveland.org Topographic corrections for precipitation and temperature are carried out by rescaling the data by a fixed factor for each calendar month so that the mean values from 1971 to 2000 match the PRISM climatology for the same period. 1990 level modified streamflow 19281989. The magnitude of flooding the term used to describe flooding severity is expected to increase throughout the basin, which includes the Columbia, Willamette and Snake rivers . The CBCCSP had a budget of about US$500 thousand (in 2010 dollars) over two years. The Hot and the Cold of It Summer comes on strong. completed or are ongoing in the Columbia River Basin. An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, methods, and summary of key results. These basins experience dramatic losses of snowpack and substantial changes in seasonal flow timing (Fig. About 10 locations show negative NSE scores, which usually occurs when the simulations are strongly biased in comparison with observations. The first nine months of the dataset were used for hydrologic model spin-up, resulting in 91 water years (OctoberSeptember) of usable historical data from the hydrologic model simulations. Glacier outlines are automatically generated from satellite imagery and are provided by, Species and Ecosystems at Risk as identified by the, Current bioclimates and modeled bioclimates for three future climate scenarios in 2080s. The Columbia River basin will see an increase in flooding over the next 50 years as a result of climate change, new modeling from Oregon State University indicates. Either naturalized or modified flows (Crook, Citation1993) are used for bias correction of data provided in the site-specific products discussed below, with naturalized data taking precedence if available. For example, to support academic or agency researchers with their own hydrologic modelling capability, the study provides projections of meteorological drivers such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and humidity and a calibrated VIC hydrologic model implementation. Bias corrected inflows were produced to support the GENESYS and HYDSIM reservoir operations models, which are used by the NWPCC and BPA, respectively, for main-stem studies in the CRB (e.g., NWPCC, Citation2005). The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America and the largest river in the Pacific Northwest. The regional report for the National Assessment was supported by two detailed water management studies focused on the CRB by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation1999b) and Miles, Snover, Hamlet, Callahan and Fluharty (Citation2000). Columbia Basin Care is the region's only independent nonprofit skilled nursing facility for long-term care and short-term rehabilitation. A detailed climate change assessment report was prepared by the CIG for Seattle City Light (Snover et al., Citation2010) based primarily on the CBCCSP database. Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). Climate Resilience Program - Columbia Basin Trust The Assessment will result in a better understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the eight components identified in SECURE in the Columbia River Basin. Future work on the project will likely focus on expanding the number of streamflow sites for which products are available (e.g., inclusion of additional sites in coastal Oregon in the site-specific products) and providing a comprehensive suite of products associated with CMIP5 results (Taylor, Stouffer, & Meehl, Citation2012) associated with IPCC AR5. 5 Examples of summary plots for monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) (mm) (averaged over the upstream basin area) and raw streamflow not adjusted for bias (cubic metres per second) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon. 2013. As a result the largest changes in snowpack are apparent in the simulations for relatively warm coastal mountain ranges, such as the Cascade Range, and at moderate elevation in the Rockies, where snowpack is most sensitive to changes in temperature of a few degrees Celsius. Contract # DE-AC79-92BP21985. Demand factored into Columbia River Basin's future - WSU Insider The CIG (http://cses.washington.edu/cig/; see the Table of Acronyms in the Appendix) is an interdisciplinary research group at the UW focused on climate-related research in five major sectors: atmospheric sciences, hydrology and water resources, aquatic ecosystems, forests, and coasts. The CBCCSP also included fine-scale hydrologic modelling using DHSVM (Wigmosta et al., Citation1994, Citation2002) in four pilot watersheds in the PNW. Les plus fortes augmentations dans les crues sont dans les bassins de pluie et neige mles dont les tempratures actuelles au milieu de l'hiver sont quelques degrs du point de conglation. Climate Change Scientific and Technical Resources - CRITFC This choice was imposed by WDOE. The CBCCSP also provided a more thorough assessment of hydrologic extremes via the HD scenarios, providing ranges of these values that were more geographically specific as opposed to an estimate of the central tendency from the CD approaches used in the WACCIA. Corresponding shifts in the seasonal timing of streamflow are also relatively small in the Canadian CRB until late in the twenty-first century. PDF Columbia River Basin Fact Sheet - usbr.gov This advance through the native forest has been driven, primarily, by cattle ranching. These hydrologic studies support detailed assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on irrigation and important crops in WA (Yorgey et al., Citation2011), which in turn will inform decisions regarding best use of funding to improve water supply benefits in WA under climate change. Thursday Sunny. The PET increases over most of the PNW in summer as a result of rising temperatures; however, AET is reduced in all but a few areas of the domain because AET is water limited and summer precipitation decreases in the simulations. The basalt mostly came from fissures in the ground, perhaps sourced from a hot spot that is now beneath the Yellowstone Caldera. West-wide studies to support USFS and USFWS needs (including current efforts to include California) will have a budget of less than half this amount, a level of efficiency that would not have been achievable without the CBCCSP pilot effort. Why is a 1C increase such a big deal? hbbd```b``z"I09 D.^`,L,=`v0fI" IA$C(QDrML@a`ig c (For example, Dworshak and Milner are nested within the larger Ice Harbor sub-basin.). Evidence includes increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America. Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates. Regional summaries were prepared by Tohver et al. 11). The RMJOC is specifically dedicated to reviewing the practices, procedures, and processes of each agency to identify changes that could improve the overall efficiency of the operation and management of the Federal Columbia River Power System projects. What Makes The Columbia River Basin Unique and How We Benefit For information on past projects, see our Projects Archive. The PRISM data for Canada were interpolated to 30 arc-second resolution data from a 2.5 arc-minute (approximately 4km) product and were statistically adjusted to remove the bias associated with the different time period (19611990 means for the 4km product). Thus, depending on their needs and level of technical sophistication, stakeholders can make the best use of the study products by extracting information at different points in the data processing sequence, all of which are available on the study web site. As noted above, such errors are commonly encountered at relatively small spatial scales, particularly when meteorological stations are sparse, and often cannot be resolved using conventional hydrologic model calibration strategies. These data were compiled from naturalization studies prepared for the BPA (Crook, Citation1993), WDOE (Flightner, Citation2008), OWRD (Cooper, Citation2002), IDWR, and the USBR. Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. To select an appropriate group of specific streamflow locations to include in the study to meet these diverse needs, the primary funding agencies for the study and several other key water management agencies in the region (MDNR, IDWR, USBR, and USACE) were asked to submit prioritized lists of streamflow locations. Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine. Broad changes in shallow groundwater (e.g., localized contributions to streamflow from smaller unconfined aquifers), however, are likely well captured by the VIC model based on a strong correlation between VIC-simulated base flows and observations in many basins examined by Wenger et al. Elsner et al. The PET is shown to increase dramatically over most of the domain (primarily because of warming in the scenarios), whereas AET shows widespread declines east of the Cascade Range. The climate of the high mountain regionsthe pramos, ranging from about 10,000 to 15,000 feet (3,000 to 4,600 metres)is characterized by average temperatures below 50 F (10 C), fog, overcast skies, frequent winds, and light rain or drizzle. In the remainder of this paper, we present an overview of the development of the CBCCSP, a description of the primary methods used to produce the study databases, an overview of the products and information the study databases provide, and some high-visibility examples of the use of these products and services in regional planning. Although results from the WACCIA would arguably have been adequate to support WDOE's adaptation planning, the CBCCSP provided additional foundation support for these efforts, and helped improve confidence in the outcomes of the adaptation strategies identified by better quantifying a range of outcomes. In relatively small basins (approximately 5001500km2), of which there are a substantial number included in the study, errors in meteorological driving data are often a strong determinant of simulation errors. Source: REVEL=Columbia River at Revelstoke Dam, CORRA=Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam, WANET=Pend Oreille River at Waneta Dam, LIBBY=Kootenai (Kootenay) River at Libby Dam, DWORS=N. Fork Clearwater River at Dworshak Dam, MILNE=Snake River at Milner, ICEHA=Snake River at Ice Harbor Dam, PRIRA=Columbia River at Priest Rapids Dam, YAPAR=Yakima River at Parker, DALLE=Columbia River at The Dalles, OR, WILFA=Willamette River above falls at Oregon City. What Does Climate Change Mean for Flooding in the Columbia River Basin About 50 of the 80 sites evaluated show monthly NSE scores greater than or equal to approximately 0.7 (good to excellent fit). Produced by, Clean Energy and Green Building Major Projects, Private and public sector clean energy and green building construction projects valued at $15M or more for the 3rd quarter of each year. Clima em Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso - weather.com Ten GCM projections for the A1B scenario and nine projections for the B1 scenario (Table 1) were selected based on a ranking of the GCMs reflecting the combined ability of each GCM to reproduce key features of PNW climate variability, including the seasonal cycle of precipitation, observed trends in temperature in the late twentieth century, bias in reproducing historical temperature and precipitation, and ability to capture key features of observed climate variability (spatial patterns of temperature, pressure, and precipitation) over the North Pacific (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). Des accroissements gnraliss simuls de la rhumidification du sol en automne et en hiver dans les secteurs o l'accumulation de neige en hiver est importante (sous le climat actuel) appuient les hypothses de risque accru de glissement de terrain et de transport de sdiments durant l'hiver dans le futur. Lvapotranspiration potentielle augmente dans la majeure partie de la rgion du Pacifique et du NordOuest en t cause des tempratures plus leves; cependant, lvaporation relle est rduite dans presque tous les secteurs du domaine parce que lvapotranspiration est principalement limite par l'eau en t et les prcipitations estivales diminuent dans les simulations. Although studies addressing natural climate variability remain an important research focus for the group, over time research assessing the impacts of anthropogenic climate change has become an increasingly important need. Starting from these parameter sets, an additional large-scale calibration was performed during the CBCCSP to improve model performance in reproducing historical streamflow. Columbia River Basin Impacts Assessment, PN Region - usbr.gov One of the fundamental difficulties with this task was that there was not, at the time, an available database of hydrologic projections that could support such planning, and regulatory agencies such as WDOE did not have the capacity or expertise to produce these resources themselves. Contact Carri Hessman Program Manager (208) 378-5106 chessman@usbr.gov Bureau of Reclamation Home | Columbia Basin Climate Source For the BCSD runs (for which the ability to capture key elements of the region's climate variability is arguably even more important to the outcomes) the projections based on the seven highest ranked GCMs (Table 1) were selected for each emissions scenario. In 2008, many of the financial and institutional barriers to climate change assessment and adaptation that had been erected over the preceding eight years by the Bush Administration were substantially reduced by the incoming Obama Administration. The Red Devils dropped the first game of the double-header 11-3 in five innings before . Three VIC model calibration parameters described above were varied in the optimization process, and six error metrics were used to define the objective function: squared correlation coefficient (R 2), NSE, the NSE of log-transformed data, annual volume error, mean hydrograph peak difference, RMSE, and number of sign changes in the simulated streamflow errors.